It seems like we’re hearing about more plane crashes lately. In just the past two months, there have been four commercial aircraft crashes, three of them fatal.
If we include private planes, the number jumps to 113 accidents since the beginning of 2025, with 15 being fatal. It definitely feels like a lot.
But are airplane crashes actually happening more often?
Or is it just that we’re paying more attention to them? Let’s take a look at the facts.
Are More Planes Crashing Now?
No. Despite recent incidents, air travel is still the safest mode of transportation.
According to the U.S. National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB), aviation accidents, incidents, and occurrences have actually decreased in early 2025 compared to 2024 and 2023.
The long-term trend is clear: flying has never been safer.
Between 2005 and 2023, global aviation accident rates dropped from 4.4 per million departures to just 1.9, according to the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO).
The number of fatalities has also fallen dramatically, from 824 deaths in 2005 to just 72 in 2023.
In other words, even though the media has been highlighting recent crashes, the actual risk of dying in a plane accident remains incredibly low.
The Odds of a Plane Crash Are Still Extremely Low
To put things into perspective:
- Flying is so safe that the trip to the airport is statistically more dangerous than the flight itself, according to aviation experts.
- MIT professor Arnold Barnett estimates that a U.S. airport traveler is five times more likely to become President than to die in a plane crash.
- Even with four commercial aircraft crashes in the past two months, that’s four out of approximately 6.2 million flights.
- You would need to fly every day for 103,239 years before experiencing a fatal plane crash.
Why Does It Feel Like Planes Are Crashing More?
Several factors are making it seem like air travel is becoming more dangerous, even though the numbers show otherwise.
1. Clusters of Events Can Happen Randomly
Sometimes, bad luck just happens.
Even with low accident rates, random patterns can make crashes seem more frequent.
Think of flipping a coin—most of the time, you get a mix of heads and tails, but sometimes, you get six heads in a row.
Plane crashes are rare, but when they do happen close together, it feels like a bigger problem than it actually is.
2. Social Media and Instant News Coverage
We live in a time when news spreads faster than ever.
In the 1960s and 1970s, airplane accidents were far more common, but people weren’t constantly bombarded with breaking news and viral social media posts.
Today, a single crash can dominate headlines for days, making it seem like they’re happening more often.
On social media, you only see the crashes—never the millions of safe flights happening daily. This makes flying feel more dangerous than it really is.
Could Plane Crashes Actually Increase Soon?
While the recent crashes aren’t part of an upward trend, there is one major factor that could impact aviation safety in the future: budget cuts at the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA).
1. FAA Cuts Could Weaken Safety Measures
In January 2025, the FAA underwent significant staffing and budget reductions:
- The FAA director was fired.
- Air Traffic Controller hiring was frozen.
- The Aviation Safety Advisory Committee was disbanded.
- Buyouts and retirements were pushed onto existing employees.
Then, on January 29—the very next week—an American Airlines flight collided with a helicopter over Washington D.C.
This timing led to speculation that the cuts may have played a role in safety lapses.
2. Experts Warn of Future Risks
While aviation experts say these FAA cuts didn’t directly cause the January 29 crash, they warn that fewer safety personnel could lead to increased risks over time.
“It certainly is not going to improve safety. It can only increase the risk,” said Jeff Guzzetti, a former FAA and NTSB official.
The FAA claims that only probationary employees were fired and that no air traffic controllers or “safety-critical” workers were let go. However, the union representing FAA employees argues that many laid-off workers played key roles in keeping air travel safe.
One former employee put it bluntly: “Without our team, pilots would quite literally be flying blind.”
Should You Be Worried About Flying?
Right now, there’s no immediate reason to fear air travel.
Plane crashes remain incredibly rare, and aviation safety systems are still robust.
However, if FAA budget cuts continue, some experts warn that we could see an increase in aviation risks over the coming years.
If you’ve been hesitant about flying, know this: statistically, you are safer in the air than you are on the road, walking down the street, or even in your own home.
So go ahead—book that flight with confidence.