Astronomers have detected a space rock, estimated to be 200 feet in length, that could be on a collision course with Earth.
A Potential Impact in 2032?
According to The New York Times, the asteroid, named 2024 YR4, has a 2.1% chance of hitting Earth on December 22, 2032, up from an earlier estimate of 1.3%.
This means the odds have increased to 1 in 48, making it one of the highest-impact probabilities recorded for a near-Earth object.
Odds Have Increased
University of Arizona researcher David Rankin shared an update on Bluesky, stating that the chances of impact have nearly doubled:
“Odds have slightly increased to 1 in 48. This is one of the highest probabilities of an impact from a significantly sized rock ever.”
Despite this increase, Rankin reassured that the most likely scenario is still a near miss.
Scientists will continue to track and analyze its path in the coming months.
What Would Happen If It Hits?
While 2024 YR4 wouldn’t destroy the entire planet, it could cause severe regional devastation.
A similar-sized asteroid hit Siberia in 1908, flattening 800 square miles of forest in the Tunguska event.
Experts emphasize that the potential damage depends heavily on the asteroid’s actual size.
The difference between a 40-meter asteroid and a 90-meter asteroid could significantly impact the severity of destruction.
Scientists hope to use NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope to get a more precise measurement of the asteroid’s dimensions.
The Torino Impact Hazard Scale
NASA’s Jet Propulsion Lab has assigned 2024 YR4 a rating of 3 on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale.
This scale measures the risk of an asteroid impact, with 3 meaning:
- Astronomers should monitor the asteroid closely.
- Public officials and the general public should be aware, especially since the encounter is within a decade.
This makes 2024 YR4 the second-highest rated asteroid ever, following the 1,300-foot-wide asteroid Apophis, which reached a level 4 rating in 2004 before being downgraded to level 1 after further study.
Could 2024 YR4 Hit the Moon Instead?
Interestingly, there’s also a 0.3% chance that the asteroid could hit the Moon rather than Earth, according to Rankin.
If that were to happen, he speculated that the impact would be visible from Earth, describing it as something that would be “neat” to observe.
The explosion on the Moon would be equivalent to 343 times the energy released by the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima.
While some debris could be ejected from the Moon’s surface, experts believe most of it would burn up in Earth’s atmosphere, posing little to no major threat.
A Win for Planetary Defense
Despite the concerns, some experts see this discovery as proof that humanity is getting better at detecting and predicting asteroid threats.
“The international systems we’re putting in place to find, track, and characterize — and, if it comes to it, mitigate the impacts of — hazardous asteroids and comets are working as intended,” said Andy Rivkin, a planetary defense researcher at Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory.
Furthermore, NASA has already demonstrated the ability to redirect an asteroid through its DART mission, proving that planetary defense measures can work if necessary.
For now, scientists continue to monitor 2024 YR4, ensuring that if action is needed, we will be prepared.