Astronomers are gearing up to study a massive asteroid named Apophis as it makes a close pass by Earth.
Apophis, roughly the size of a modern luxury cruise ship at 1150 feet wide, could cause catastrophic damage if it were to strike land, potentially destroying an area the size of a small country and triggering tsunamis.
Discovered in 2004, initial calculations suggested Apophis might collide with Earth in 2029 or 2036, raising significant concerns.
Apophis is named after the ancient Egyptian god of darkness and chaos, reflecting its potentially destructive power.
However, more precise measurements have mostly ruled out any risk for at least the next 100 years. Still, new research highlights some potential long-term risks.
New Study on Impact Risk
A recent study by Canadian astronomer Paul Wiegert has suggested that while Apophis poses no immediate threat of impact during its 2029 or 2036 flybys.
There is a slight chance it could be redirected toward Earth by a collision with another space object.
Though the odds are extremely low, estimated at less than 1 in 2 billion for an impact in 2029, such a collision could push Apophis into a “keyhole” trajectory, potentially setting it on a future collision course with Earth.
For Apophis to hit Earth in 2029, it would need to collide with an object around 11 feet wide.
While this scenario remains highly unlikely, it underscores the need for ongoing monitoring of Apophis and similar asteroids.
Limited Observability
Adding to this uncertainty is the fact that Apophis has been largely unobservable since May 2021 due to its position relative to the Sun.
This means astronomers will not be able to track Apophis until 2027, a six-year gap where any slight changes in its path could go undetected.
Once Apophis becomes visible again, astronomers will quickly assess whether its trajectory has shifted.
April 13, 2029 Close Encounter
On April 13, 2029, Apophis will pass by Earth at a distance of 20.000 miles, closer than many satellites orbiting our planet.
Although this flyby will not result in a collision, it offers scientists a unique opportunity to study Apophis up close and gather data on how asteroids respond to Earth’s gravity and other environmental factors.
1. Apophis will miss Earth
— ESA Operations (@esaoperations) June 19, 2024
Apophis will miss Earth when it flies past our planet on 13 April 2029. If you only remember one of these facts, make sure it’s this one. pic.twitter.com/coOtFY5r2i
The European Space Agency’s (ESA) Mission
The ESA is planning to send a mission called RAMSES (Rapid Apophis Mission for Space Safety) to study Apophis up close.
This mission is part of the broader Planetary Defense Program, which aims to better understand and potentially mitigate the threat of large asteroids.
RAMSES will investigate Apophis’ composition, structure, and trajectory to prepare for any potential future threats.
The short timeframe of four years for launching RAMSES is intentional, serving as a practice run for responding to potential real-world threats from space.
This mission will build on the design of the Hera probe, scheduled for launch in October to revisit the Didymos and Dimorphos asteroids.
Understanding the Risks
While 95% of “planet killer” asteroids have been identified, it’s the remaining 5% that still pose a risk.
Currently, there are no known asteroid impacts expected in the next 1,000 years.
However, smaller asteroids, like Apophis, can still cause significant regional damage.
Earth constantly encounters interplanetary dust, with small meteors entering the atmosphere daily.
Larger impacts, like the one in Chelyabinsk, Russia, in 2013, occur less frequently but still highlight the potential dangers.
The biggest asteroids, over 1 mile in size, could end civilization if they struck Earth, but these are extremely rare, occurring once every two million years.
Studying Apophis
NASA and ESA are both keen to study Apophis during its close approach.
NASA’s OSIRIS-REx probe, which previously collected samples from the asteroid Bennu, is set to rendezvous with Apophis in 2029.
This will allow scientists to observe how Apophis’ surface reacts to Earth’s gravity and other environmental factors.
The OSIRIS-REx mission will stay close to Apophis for over a year, using its thrusters to study the asteroid’s subsurface material.
This will provide crucial data on space weathering and the surface strength of stony asteroids.
Wiegert’s study also notes that smaller impacts from objects, even as small as 2 feet, could theoretically alter Apophis’ trajectory over time, although the chances of this happening are less than 1 in a million.
By observing Apophis closely, NASA and ESA hope to refine our understanding of how these forces could affect future asteroid threats.
Conclusion
As Apophis approaches, both NASA and ESA are taking advantage of this unique opportunity to study an asteroid up close.
These efforts not only enhance our understanding of these celestial bodies but also prepare us for potential future threats from space.
By examining Apophis, scientists hope to gain valuable insights into the composition and behavior of asteroids, which can help improve planetary defense strategies.
The close encounter with Apophis will serve as a real-world test for planetary defense techniques and enhance our preparedness for any future asteroid threats.